How lingering labour market woes can help explain youth street protests today

These tables are for Canada.  The same tables for the province of Québec can be found here (PDF). The analysis is nearly identical.

May 2008 May 2012 Net
Population 26,850.60 28,271.60 1,421.00 5.29%
    Age 15-24 4,428.80 4,457.30 28.50 0.64%
    Age 25-54 14,297.10 14,560.90 263.80 1.85%
    Age 55+ 8,124.80 9,253.40 1,128.60 13.89%
Labour Force 18,389.40 19,097.40 708.00 3.85%
    Age 15-24 3,107.70 2,987.00 -120.70 -3.88%
    Age 25-54 12,465.00 12,665.10 200.10 1.61%
    Age 55+ 2,816.80 3,445.20 628.40 22.31%
Employed 17,245.50 17,677.00 431.50 2.50%
    Age 15-24 2,689.20 2,500.40 -188.80 -7.02%
    Age 25-54 11,879.80 11,923.00 43.20 0.36%
    Age 55+ 2,676.50 3,253.60 577.10 21.56%
Unemployed 1,144.00 1,420.30 276.30 24.15%
    Age 15-24 418.50 486.70 68.20 16.30%
    Age 25-54 585.20 742.10 156.90 26.81%
    Age 55+ 140.30 191.50 51.20 36.49%

Source: CANSIM Tables 282-0001 Labour force survey estimates (LFS), monthly (persons x 1,000) Statistics Canada

 

May 2008 May 2012 Net
Not in Labour Force 8,461.20 9,174.30 713.10 8.43%
    wanted work 374.20 468.40 94.20 25.17%
        Age 15-24 152.60 183.80 31.20 20.45%
        Age 25-54 169.20 217.90 48.70 28.78%
        Age 55+ 52.40 66.70 14.30 27.29%
    n/a for work 8,087.00 8,705.90 618.90 7.65%
        Age 15-24 1,168.40 1,286.50 118.10 10.11%
        Age 25-54 1,662.90 1,677.90 15.00 0.90%
        Age 55+ 5,255.60 5,741.50 485.90 9.25%

Source: CANSIM Table 282-0218 Labour force survey estimates (LFS), monthly (persons x 1,000) Statistics Canada

 

May 2008 May 2012 Net
All classes of workers 17,245.50 17,677.00 431.50 2.50%
    Employees 14,630.30 14,984.50 354.20 2.42%
        Public sector 3,447.40 3,606.60 159.20 4.62%
        Private sector 11,182.80 11,377.90 195.10 1.74%
    Self-employed 2,615.20 2,692.50 77.30 2.96%

Source: CANSIM Table 282-0011 Labour force survey estimates (LFS), monthly (persons x 1,000) Statistics Canada

 

Mar 2008 Mar 2012 Net
Receiving EI benefits 597.87 684.31 86.44 14.46%
    Age 15-24 64.90 73.39 8.49 13.08%
    Age 25-54 424.16 460.99 36.83 8.68%
    Age 55+ 108.81 149.93 41.12 37.79%

Source: CANSIM Table 276-0001 Employment Insurance Program (E.I.),  monthly (persons x 1,000) Statistics Canada

In May 2008 the official unemployment rate in Canada for those aged 15-24 was 13.5%; today it stands at 16.3%.  This does not factor in the decline in labour market participation for this age group, from 70.2% in May 2008 to 67% today.  This is reflected in the jump in 15-24 year-olds who wish to work but are no longer counted in the May 2012 labour force estimate, as they have either been discouraged or given up looking and gone back to school.

It’s apparent from the tables that increased labour market participation of those age 55+ since the recession has accounted for much of the youth’s labour market difficulties. Not only did the 55+ age group account for  all (actually > 100%) of the net gain in employment over the last four years, but the unemployed among the group also account for a widely disproportionate share of EI benefit receipts.  According to the March 2012 EI report, 78.3% of the unemployed age 55+ received regular EI benefits, while only 15.1% of the unemployed age 15-24 did.  Part of it has to do with differences in class/industry/occupation between the two age groups; unfortunately, LFS tables for class/industry/occupation by age group are not publicly available (likely due to data quality).  The assertion that employment gain for those 55+ over the last four years came largely from self-employment does not hold up either.

If the youth in the streets had jobs, reasonable prospects of finding work, or even just adequate income security while unemployed, they likely wouldn’t be there.  If their protest has evolved into a greater manifestation of social discontent to include those of working age, the labour force numbers speak to this as well.  Half of those counted as youth back in 2008 had the misfortune of ageing into the working age population during this prolonged labour market downturn.

These demonstrations are taking place at a time the federal government is set to pass a budget that will make younger workers’ already slim chances of qualifying for unemployment income security  (EI) even slimmer, while discounting their future income security (OAS/GIS)  to compensate for the retiring baby-boomer generation which did not pay its ‘fair share’.  Closer to home, their provincial government is asking them to bear more responsibility for a structural deficit largely borne of rising health care and social spending incurred for that same boomer generation.  And they are being asked to pay more at a time their employment and earning prospects are more bleak than those faced by that privileged boomer generation.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>